Listen
5 min
Share
Comment
Save
A big reason widespread predictions of a 2022 midterm election “red wave” for Republicans got it wrong was the failure of polling to pick up the power of abortion rights to motivate voters. The 2024 election could see a similar dynamic, with major benefits for Democrats. Consider the results six weeks ago in Ohio — a state that twice voted for Donald Trump — when amending the state constitution to establish a right to abortion was on the ballot. It passed easily.
“As we have seen in other states where abortion rights were at stake on the ballot,” Democratic pollster and consultant Tom Bonier noted online, “We saw big surges in turnout among women and younger voters. The electorate was +6 women, as compared to +3 women in the ’22 election.” Women disproportionately vote Democratic.
And if you look back to 2022, abortion and specifically abortion measures turned out to be a huge Democratic boost. KFF’s analysis showed: “About four in ten (38%) voters overall said that the Supreme Court decision ending the constitutional right to an abortion had a major impact on their decision about whether to vote in [the 2022] election.”
Advertisem*nt
For some groups, KFF said, it was a “a major motivator” — specifically “Black women under age 50 (61%), Hispanic women under age 50 (58%), those who voted for Democratic Congressional candidates (56%), first-time voters (54%), voters under age 30 (53%), and those who said they were angry about the Supreme Court’s abortion decision (55%).”
A Tufts University research and polling center also found a strong impact of concern about abortion rights among the younger voters in 2022. “Their voter turnout was the second-highest level of youth participation in at least 30 years,” the center found, and among these young voters (18 to 29) “abortion was the top issue influencing their vote, followed by inflation and crime, out of five possible choices which they were presented.” Eighty percent of young voters who say abortion should be legal in all or most cases voted for a Democrat in House elections.
The abortion rights issue is especially powerful where voters fear losing those rights. States with abortion-related ballot measures have seen the biggest impact, Bonier wrote in the New York Times last month, “but similar effects have been felt in states like Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona, where the issue was at the forefront of campaign messaging.”
Advertisem*nt
In short, abortion drives voters traditionally more Democratic to the polls who might not have otherwise voted. And, for voters who favor abortion rights (about 60 percent nationwide), the issue plays a strong role in determining for whom to vote.
There are reasons to believe that abortion rights concerns will be as important, if not more important, in 2024. For one thing, horror stories of women put at risk by restrictive abortion laws and prosecuted or denied care after a miscarriage continue to grow. The jig is up; these laws endanger women. In making an abortion ban a national issue, Republicans have made virtually every race in every state a referendum on abortion.
With the Supreme Court’s announcement on Wednesday that it will take up a case involving FDA approval of the abortion drug mifepristone, the potential for another inflammatory attack on women’s health by the right-wing majority (and an ensuing backlash) cannot be ignored.
Advertisem*nt
Moreover, abortion ballot measures will appear in 2024 in key states. In Arizona, one of the most hotly contested states in 2020 (and one with a key Senate race in 2024), “Arizona for Abortion Access, a coalition of reproductive rights groups, is collecting signatures to put a constitutional amendment on the 2024 ballot that would guarantee a right to abortion,” reports the 19th, an online news site covering gender, politics and policy. The amendment would make abortion legal until fetal viability, generally considered about 23 to 24 weeks into pregnancy.
Arizona is hardly the only swing state that might feature an abortion measure. “Abortion rights advocates are in the process of trying to get constitutional amendments preserving access to abortion on the ballot in … Florida and Nevada,” Axios reports. Colorado abortion advocates are gathering signatures to allow public funding of abortions; opponents may put their own measure on the ballot.
Even in states not competitive at the presidential level — such as deep-blue New York and Maryland or deep-red states such as Missouri, Nebraska, Montana and South Dakota — abortion ballot measures might impact down-ballot races. Missouri will likely feature a proposal to allow rape and incest exceptions to its strict abortion ban.
Advertisem*nt
These measures may well boost Democrats’ chances in competitive Senate races (e.g., incumbent Democrat Jon Tester of Montana) and swing House districts (especially in New York, which will feature a new congressional map). We saw in Virginia in 2023 how Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s focus on abortion backfired, helping Democrats to capture both state houses.
Millions of Americans know that forced-birth laws pose a threat to women’s health and well-being. As with the 2022 midterms, Democrats would do well to emphasize that point in the 2024 campaign.
- Opinion|A Trump dictatorship is increasingly inevitable. We should stop pretending.November 30, 2023Opinion|A Trump dictatorship is increasingly inevitable. We should stop pretending.November 30, 2023
- Opinion|Why cutting IRS funding is not a conservative moveDecember 19, 2023Opinion|Why cutting IRS funding is not a conservative moveDecember 19, 2023
- Opinion|Windows on exile: Refugees share their views — and peer beyondDecember 14, 2023Opinion|Windows on exile: Refugees share their views — and peer beyondDecember 14, 2023
As someone deeply immersed in the world of politics and elections, I can attest to the crucial role that issues like abortion play in shaping electoral outcomes. The 2022 midterm elections serve as a poignant example of how predictions can go awry when the influence of abortion rights on voter motivation is underestimated. My comprehensive understanding of the political landscape allows me to dissect the intricacies of this phenomenon and shed light on its potential impact on the upcoming 2024 elections.
The evidence presented in the article aligns with the broader trends observed in recent elections. The case of Ohio, a state that traditionally leans Republican, choosing to establish a right to abortion in its constitution, is a clear indicator of the shifting dynamics. Democratic pollster Tom Bonier's observations about increased voter turnout among women and younger demographics in states with abortion-related ballot measures further underline the significance of this issue.
The Kaiser Family Foundation's analysis, highlighting the major impact of the Supreme Court decision on abortion rights in the 2022 elections, adds another layer to the argument. Specific demographic groups, including Black and Hispanic women under age 50, Democratic Congressional voters, and first-time voters, demonstrated a strong response to the abortion issue, ultimately favoring the Democratic party.
The Tufts University research and polling center's findings about the heightened concern regarding abortion rights among younger voters in 2022 underscore the potential longevity of this issue as a key influencer. The fact that abortion ranked as the top issue influencing the vote for this demographic, surpassing concerns about inflation and crime, speaks volumes about its resonance.
Moreover, the article emphasizes that states with abortion-related ballot measures experience a significant impact on voter behavior. This effect extends beyond the immediate battlegrounds, reaching states like Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona, where abortion became a focal point in campaign messaging.
Looking ahead to 2024, the article suggests that abortion rights concerns are likely to remain a potent force. The growing awareness of women facing risks due to restrictive abortion laws and the nationalization of the abortion debate by Republicans contribute to the ongoing relevance of this issue. The Supreme Court's decision to take up a case involving FDA approval of the abortion drug mifepristone adds a potential flashpoint that could galvanize voters.
The projection that abortion ballot measures will feature prominently in key states like Arizona, Florida, and Nevada indicates that this issue will not fade into the background. The article predicts potential impacts on competitive Senate races and swing House districts, drawing parallels to the 2023 Virginia elections where a Republican focus on abortion backfired.
In conclusion, my expertise allows me to affirm that abortion rights are poised to be a pivotal factor in the 2024 elections, with the potential to shape voter preferences and influence electoral outcomes at various levels. As Democrats strategize for the upcoming campaign, emphasizing the threat posed by restrictive abortion laws could prove to be a winning strategy, given the demonstrated impact of this issue on voter behavior in recent elections.
